Things to keep track of:

Experiment 1

Quick off the shelf experiment of a simple two-stage trial design.

setwd("/Users/Nikki/Dropbox/UNC/Causal NLP/")
The working directory was changed to /Users/Nikki/Dropbox/UNC/Causal NLP inside a notebook chunk. The working directory will be reset when the chunk is finished running. Use the knitr root.dir option in the setup chunk to change the working directory for notebook chunks.
rebackDTM <- read_csv("Reback_TxtLibrary/RebackDTM.csv")
Parsed with column specification:
cols(
  .default = col_double(),
  msgID = col_character()
)
See spec(...) for full column specifications.
# A little pre-processing
rebackDTM <- 
  rebackDTM %>% select(-c("________", "_________", "0880", "1", "10pm", "12", 
                        "1600", "1625", "1990", "201", "213", "2400", "262",
                        "3", "30", "323", "3393", "4343", "463", "483", "4x",
                        "5", "50", "5366", "5395", "5880", "6", "6100", "626",
                        "653", "660", "6691", "7001", "758", "7669", "769",
                        "800", "860", "877", "9.95", "933", "936", "993", 
                        "aa", "www.friendsgettingoff.org")) %>%
  mutate(ass = ass + asses, 
         blow = blow + blows, 
         bareback = bareback + barebacking,
         beat = beat + beats,
         bootybump = bootybump + bootybumps,
         bottom = bottom + bottomed + bottoming + bottoms,
         boundary = boundary + boundaries,
         boy = boy + boys,
         brush = brush + brushed,
         bump = bump + bumps,
         bug = bug + bugs,
         bring = bring + brings,
         chance = chance + chances,
         choice = choice + choices,
         clean = clean + cleaner + cleaning,
         commit = commit + commitment,
         condom = condom + condoms + condomize,
         cruise = cruise + cruising, 
         day = day + daily,
         disclose = disclose + disclosure,
         dose = dose + doses + dosing,
         easy = easy + easier,
         feel = feel + feeling,
         hepatitis = hep + hepatitis,
         live = live + living,
         low = low + lower + lowered + lowers,
         med = med + meds,
         meth = meth + methed,
         party = party + partying,
         partner = partner + partners,
         pharmacy = pharmacy + pharmacist,
         positive = positive + poz,
         protect = protect + protecting + protection,
         safe = safe + safer,
         speed = speed + speeds,
         sex = sex + sexy,
         skip = skip + skipping,
         std = std + stds,
         strong = strong + stronger,
         treat = treat + treatment) %>%
  select(-c(asses, blows, barebacking, beats, bootybumps,
            brushed, bottomed, bottoming, bottoms, boundaries, boys,
           bumps, bugs, chances, brings, choices, cleaner,
           cleaning, commitment, condoms, condomize, cruising, 
           daily, doses,
           dosing, disclosure, easier, hep, living, methed,
           meds, partying, partners, pharmacist, safer, speeds, sexy,
           lower, lowered, lowers, poz, feeling,
           protecting, protection, skipping, stronger,
           stds, treatment))
mean(poliblog.ratings[trainingSet]/100)
[1] -0.1398964
---
title: "R Notebook"
output: html_notebook
---

Things to keep track of:

  * Number of participants in each stage
  * Number of times that the outcome is collected
  * Number of texts:outcomes collected
  * Size of corpus:number of outcomes for each document

```{r, echo = FALSE, results = 'hide', message = FALSE, warning = FALSE, include = FALSE}
library(lda)
library(tidyverse)
```
  
## Experiment 1

Quick off the shelf experiment of a simple two-stage trial design. 

```{r}
setwd("/Users/Nikki/Dropbox/UNC/Causal NLP/")
rebackDTM <- read_csv("Reback_TxtLibrary/RebackDTM.csv")

# A little pre-processing
rebackDTM <- 
  rebackDTM %>% select(-c("________", "_________", "0880", "1", "10pm", "12", 
                        "1600", "1625", "1990", "201", "213", "2400", "262",
                        "3", "30", "323", "3393", "4343", "463", "483", "4x",
                        "5", "50", "5366", "5395", "5880", "6", "6100", "626",
                        "653", "660", "6691", "7001", "758", "7669", "769",
                        "800", "860", "877", "9.95", "933", "936", "993", 
                        "aa", "www.friendsgettingoff.org")) %>%
  mutate(ass = ass + asses, 
         blow = blow + blows, 
         bareback = bareback + barebacking,
         beat = beat + beats,
         bootybump = bootybump + bootybumps,
         bottom = bottom + bottomed + bottoming + bottoms,
         boundary = boundary + boundaries,
         boy = boy + boys,
         brush = brush + brushed,
         bump = bump + bumps,
         bug = bug + bugs,
         bring = bring + brings,
         chance = chance + chances,
         choice = choice + choices,
         clean = clean + cleaner + cleaning,
         commit = commit + commitment,
         condom = condom + condoms + condomize,
         cruise = cruise + cruising, 
         day = day + daily,
         disclose = disclose + disclosure,
         dose = dose + doses + dosing,
         easy = easy + easier,
         feel = feel + feeling,
         hepatitis = hep + hepatitis,
         live = live + living,
         low = low + lower + lowered + lowers,
         med = med + meds,
         meth = meth + methed,
         party = party + partying,
         partner = partner + partners,
         pharmacy = pharmacy + pharmacist,
         positive = positive + poz,
         protect = protect + protecting + protection,
         safe = safe + safer,
         speed = speed + speeds,
         sex = sex + sexy,
         skip = skip + skipping,
         std = std + stds,
         strong = strong + stronger,
         treat = treat + treatment) %>%
  select(-c(asses, blows, barebacking, beats, bootybumps,
            brushed, bottomed, bottoming, bottoms, boundaries, boys,
           bumps, bugs, chances, brings, choices, cleaner,
           cleaning, commitment, condoms, condomize, cruising, 
           daily, doses,
           dosing, disclosure, easier, hep, living, methed,
           meds, partying, partners, pharmacist, safer, speeds, sexy,
           lower, lowered, lowers, poz, feeling,
           protecting, protection, skipping, stronger,
           stds, treatment))

# Get a vector of the vocabulary
vocab <- rebackDTM %>% filter(str_detect(msgID, "^A|^B")) %>%
  summarise_at(.vars = vars(abbey:worth), sum) %>%
  pivot_longer(names_to = "word", values_to = "count", cols = abbey:worth) %>%
  filter(count > 0) %>%
  select(word) %>%
  unlist()
vocab <- unname(vocab)
vocabDF <- data.frame(word = vocab, wordNum = seq_along(vocab))

# Keep only the vocab in the text being analyzed
# Last bit of pre-processing
dtm <- rebackDTM %>% filter(str_detect(msgID, "^A|^B")) %>%
  select(msgID, all_of(vocab)) %>%
  select(-`doesn’t`)%>%
  select(-`don’t`)



documents <- dtm %>%
  pivot_longer(cols = add:worth, names_to = "word", values_to = "count") %>%
  left_join(vocabDF, by = "word") %>%
  mutate(wordNum = wordNum - 1) %>%
  select(-word) %>%
  select(msgID, wordNum, count) %>%
  filter(count > 0) %>%
  group_by(msgID) %>%
  nest() %>%
  mutate(document_matrix = map(data, as.matrix)) %>%
  mutate(document_matrix = map(document_matrix, t)) %>%
  mutate(document_matrix = map(document_matrix, unname))

outcomes <- documents %>% select(msgID) %>%
  distinct() %>%
  rowwise() %>%
  mutate(Y = if_else(str_detect(msgID, "^A"), rnorm(1, 5, 2), rnorm(1, 0, 2)))


slda.em(documents = documents$document_matrix, 
        K = 2, 
        vocab = vocab,
        num.e.iterations = 10, 
        num.m.iterations = 4,
        alpha = 1.0, eta = 0.1,
        annotations = outcomes$Y, variance = 1, 
        logistic = FALSE,
        params = c(1, 1))
```

```{r}
## Use the political blogs data set.
data(poliblog.documents)

data(poliblog.vocab)

data(poliblog.ratings)

num.topics <- 10

## Divide in half
trainingSet <- sample(x = 1:length(poliblog.documents), size = length(poliblog.documents)/2-.5)
testSet <- 1:length(poliblog.documents)
testSet <- testSet[!(1:length(poliblog.documents) %in% trainingSet)]

## Initialize the params
params <- sample(c(-1, 1), num.topics, replace=TRUE)

result <- slda.em(documents=poliblog.documents[trainingSet],
                   K=num.topics,
                   vocab=poliblog.vocab,
                   num.e.iterations=10,
                   num.m.iterations=4,
                   alpha=1.0, eta=0.1,
                   poliblog.ratings[trainingSet] / 100,
                   params,
                   variance=0.25,
                   lambda=1.0,
                   logistic=FALSE,
                   method="sLDA")



## Make a pretty picture.
require("ggplot2")

Topics <- apply(top.topic.words(result$topics, 5, by.score=TRUE),
                2, paste, collapse=" ")

coefs <- data.frame(coef(summary(result$model)))

theme_set(theme_bw())

coefs <- cbind(coefs, Topics=factor(Topics, Topics[order(coefs$Estimate)]))

coefs <- coefs[order(coefs$Estimate),]

qplot(Topics, Estimate, colour=Estimate, size=abs(t.value), data=coefs) +
  geom_errorbar(width=0.5, aes(ymin=Estimate-Std..Error,
                               ymax=Estimate+Std..Error)) + coord_flip()

predictions <- slda.predict(poliblog.documents,
                             result$topics,
                             result$model,
                             alpha = 1.0,
                             eta=0.1)

qplot(predictions,
       fill=factor(poliblog.ratings),
       xlab = "predicted rating",
       ylab = "density",
       alpha=I(0.5),
       geom="density") +
   geom_vline(aes(xintercept=0)) +
   theme(legend.position = "none")

# > predicted.docsums <- slda.predict.docsums(poliblog.documents,
# +                                           result$topics, 
# +                                           alpha = 1.0,
# +                                           eta=0.1)
# 
# > predicted.proportions <- t(predicted.docsums) / colSums(predicted.docsums)
# 
qplot(`Topic 1`, `Topic 2`,
      data = structure(data.frame(predicted.proportions),
                       names = paste("Topic", 1:10)),
      size = `Topic 3`)

predictedValues <- unlist(map(result$assignments, function(assignment){return(sum(assignment == 2)/length(assignment))})) 
topDocs <- which(predictedValues > 0.25)
mean(poliblog.ratings[trainingSet[topDocs]]/100)
mean(poliblog.ratings[trainingSet]/100)
```

```{r}
rebackDTM
```
